Theresa May - White Paper on Brexit - 12 Jul 2018

On Thursday 12 July 2018, The Government published the White Paper The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.  This White Paper defines in more detail the proposals of Theresa May's Chequers Brexit Statement.

This White Paper is 104 pages long and it may be read:

The white paper statement includes the following sections:

  • Economic Partnership.
  • Security Partnership.
  • Cross-cutting and other cooperation.
  • Institutional arrangements.

The UKIP and my opinion is that Theresa May's White Paper is unacceptable and effectively retains the ties of the UK to the EU in a somewhat convoluted matter.  Furthermore, it is not in accordance with the UK's 2016 EU Referendum Result.

The White Paper makes it very clear that the Government is committed to:

  • The adoption of the "Common Rulebook" (effectively the EU Rulebook) would tie the UK to EU regulations.
  • The UK would be Treaty bound to place new EU legislation onto the statute book.
  • The White Paper states that the UK could diverge from EU regulations, however, there would be consequences and potentially fines to pay for non-compliance.
  • The UK would part remain under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice; this violates Theresa May's Lancaster House commitment.
  • The Facilitated Customs Arrangement does not give the UK reciprocal rights to those granted to the EU, and this would effectively keep the UK in the Single Market and unable to strike Trade Agreements with other countries.
  • A Common Defence Union that would require additional contributions.  This is unwanted and unnecessary as the UK is a member of NATO.
  • Ongoing social security payments would be made to EU members, that would not be made to non-EU members.
  • The ability to ban the export of live animals for slaughter is questionable.
  • There is a lack of detail on how the UK could or would regain control of its exclusive economic zone to protect UK fishermen.
  • The White paper does not include the repatriation to the UK of the UK element of EU held assets.
  • The White Paper does not call upon payment of the deferred revenue post-Brexit of the UK portion of EU investments pre-Brexit. 

Theresa May is offering to pay £39 billion for an EU agreement.  The Balance of Trade difference between the UK and EU £70 billion and rising.  Assuming an average tariff on UK/EU trade of 5%; the UK could afford to pay the export tariffs to the EU and be £35 billion pounds better off after 10 years.

It follows that Theresa May must gain at least £74 billion of value and concessions in any deal that is not a clean Brexit on WTO terms on 29 March 2019.  

Other analyses of the Brexit White Paper are here: